Provided is a prediction-based marketplace. While some existing prediction-based marketplaces may be adequate in some respects, there may be alternative prediction-based marketplaces that are advantageous in other respects. The present disclosure, for example, may provide a prediction-based marketplace where buyers (e.g., consumers) may purchase (e.g., for monetary payment or another type of consideration) a prediction for the outcome of an event.
The present disclosure provides a prediction-based marketplace that may provide pricing or valuation, for the predictions, that may be based on objective information. For example, in one embodiment, a prediction-based marketplace may provide predictions for the prices (e.g., opening, high, low or closing [OHLC] price) of financial instruments. In that scenario, the prediction-based marketplace may provide pricing or valuation of a prediction for that financial instrument based on the historical pricing (e.g., closing or opening prices) of that financial instrument.
Further, the present disclosure provides a prediction-based marketplace that may credit a portion of the purchase price back to the buyer, or consumer, of a prediction. For example, in one embodiment, a prediction-based marketplace may provide the buyer with a portion of the amount that the buyer paid for the prediction of an event outcome (e.g., the OHLC price of a financial instrument) based on the actual outcome of the event (e.g., the actual OHLC price of the financial instrument). In that scenario, the prediction-based marketplace may provide the buyer with a portion of the purchase price for a prediction that may not be entirely accurate. In some instances, the amount of the credit to the buyer may depend on the direction of the prediction. For example, the amount of the credit to the buyer may depend on the direction of the prediction relative to the direction of the actual outcome of the event. Further, the prediction-based marketplace may distribute the purchase price for predictions among the owner or operator of the marketplace (e.g., market maker), the consumers (e.g. buyers), and suppliers (e.g., providers of predictions) in a manner that depends on the actual outcome of the event.